Academic publications

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11951/16

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Perceptions of Student Enrollment Factors in Uganda Christian University
(East African Nature & Science Organization, 2026-04) Halima Nassanga; Mary Jakisa Owor; Joseph Jakisa Owor; Ronald Kyagulanyi
This study investigated perceptions of factors influencing student enrollment at Uganda Christian University (UCU), with specific attention to institutional, academic-related, and financial-related determinants. Anchored in Human Capital Theory and Student Choice Theory, the study sought to explain how prospective and current students evaluate universities in an increasingly competitive higher education environment. A descriptive cross-sectional design was adopted, using a mixed-methods approach that combined questionnaire surveys and semi-structured interviews. Quantitative data were collected from undergraduate and prospective students, while qualitative insights were obtained from admissions, marketing, and public relations staff. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, multiple linear regression, and content analysis. The findings revealed very strong positive correlations between student enrollment and financial factors (r = 0.991), academic factors (r = 0.993), and institutional factors (r = 0.992), suggesting that enrollment decisions are shaped by multiple interrelated dimensions. However, regression analysis showed that academic-related factors (β = 0.465, p = .008) and institutional factors (β = 0.426, p < .001) were the strongest significant predictors of enrollment, while financial factors (β = 0.105, p = .475) were not statistically significant when the other variables were controlled. Qualitative findings reinforced these results by highlighting the importance of program relevance, lecturer competence, graduate employability, institutional reputation, campus facilities, and alumni success in influencing enrollment decisions. The study concludes that private universities can strengthen enrollment by prioritising academic quality, institutional credibility, infrastructure improvement, and supportive financial access mechanisms.
Digital Capability, Knowledge Capital, and Governance in East African SACCOs: A Systematic Review of Drivers of Financial Inclusion
(East African Nature & Science Organization, 2026-03) Joseph Jakisa Owor; Sandra Namisango; Ronald Kyagulanyi
Savings and Credit Cooperative Organisations (SACCOs) remain central to financial inclusion in East Africa, particularly for rural and low-income populations excluded from commercial banking. However, despite their growth, SACCO performance across Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania remains uneven due to technological, governance, and knowledge constraints. This study undertakes a theory-driven systematic review of SACCO performance between 2020 and 2025 to examine how digital capability, financial knowledge, governance quality, and community embeddedness shape inclusion outcomes. Grounded in Institutional Theory, Resource-Based View, Agency Theory, and Technology Adoption frameworks, the study synthesises peer-reviewed literature, regulatory reports (Kenya Sacco Societies Regulatory Authority (SASRA), Tanzania Cooperative Development Commission (TCDC), Uganda Microfinance Regulatory Authority (UMRA)), and global datasets (Global Findex, GSMA, WOCCU). Using structured thematic coding supported by qualitative synthesis procedures, the review identifies four interdependent drivers of SACCO sustainability: digital integration capacity, member financial literacy, governance and oversight quality, and social capital density. Findings indicate that digital adoption improves outreach and transaction efficiency, but its impact depends critically on member knowledge and regulatory capacity. Weak governance and agency problems remain primary predictors of SACCO failure, particularly in poorly supervised environments. Community networks enhance repayment discipline and savings culture, but cannot substitute for institutional accountability. The study contributes by integrating fragmented SACCO literature into a coherent systems framework and proposing a SACCO Institutional–Digital Capability Model for future empirical testing. Policy implications emphasise coordinated investments in digital infrastructure, governance reform, financial capability development, and predictive oversight systems.
Assessment of the Socio-cultural Viability of Integrated Waste-to-energy Systems for Uganda
(International Journal of Renewable Energy Technology, 2020-12) Miria Frances Agunyo; Kukunda Elizabeth Bacwayo; Sarah Kizza-Nkambwe
Application of waste-to-energy systems could be the solution for urban areas in countries like Uganda where municipal solid waste is composed of atleast 70% organic matter and sewage and faecal sludge management is limited to about 20 treatment plants. Projected increase in urbanisation to 50% in 2050 will only constrain the existing sanitation facilities, resulting in public health issues and competition for land use. This study investigates application of integrated waste-to-energy systems consisting of a combination of anaerobic digestion, incineration and composting to treat organic waste streams from urban areas. Despite the benefits of such systems related to resource recovery in form of biogas and organic fertiliser, little is known about their socio-cultural viability. A survey carried out at Uganda Christian University showed respondent`s beliefs and cultural backgrounds influenced their attitude towards utilising resources recovered. Also, sensitisation and quality assurance of resources recovered boosted system acceptability.
The Changing Role of Higher Education Institutions on Research and Innovation in Africa: A Systematic Review
(International Journal for Innovation Education and Research, 2022) Shallon Atuhaire; Frankline Higenyi; Elizabeth Bacwayo; Annet Mugisha; Christine Mwebesa; Rachel Nambuya
Research and innovation are crucial in the process of achieving sustainable development goals. Given the significant role Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) play in research. Africa is still grappling with both the changing higher education global landscape and fostering of a research culture that addresses its own societal needs. This study explored the changing role of HEIs on research and innovation and the bottlenecks to its’ realisation in Africa. E-literature was searched from online databases mainly Google Scholar, PubMed, ScienceDirect, Embase and African Journals Online. The search strategy considered relevant content on the subject by use of keywords, purpose of the study and year of publication (2010 to 2021). Overall, the search yielded 889,264 results. From Google Scholar, 805,000 were found, ScienceDirect; 9196, PubMed; 1168, Embase; 63100, and African Journals Online; 10800. The Cochrane review protocol and the PRISMA flowchart were used to assess the relevance of these articles. Eventually, 107 full articles were critically analysed for legibility resulting in 16 studies, which were included. Research and innovation as well as the role of HEIs to the two are keywords of the time. This role has been changing to meet up with globalization demands and increase in population. While their indigenous role was co-creation of knowledge and transfer, they have of recent past surged to create innovation ecosystems, transfer technologies, promotion innovation and research and its’ management. They have gained an ascendancy in sustainability debates as engines of innovation most especially in science, technology, and human progress. This changing role has been compounded by shortcomings such as inadequate competences in the use of emerging ICTs, inadequate funding, curriculum content that does not clearly spell out practical life skills, innovation opportunities, and corporate social responsibility that is still very low. The changing role of HEIs in research in Africa is evidently clear and has been from creation of new knowledge and its transfer to one that is need-driven, entrepreneurial, transformational, and able to reconfigure the status of innovation systems for regional socio-economic transformation. The limitations to its realization could be mitigated through institutional collaboration, funding and customization of research.
Enhancing Adoption of Agroforestry in the Eastern Agro-ecological Zone of Uganda
(International Journal of Ecological Science and Environmental Engineering, 2016) Twaha Ali Basamba; Clement Mayanja; Barnabas Kiiza; Bob Nakileza; Frank Matsiko; Paul Nyende; Elizabeth Bacwayo Kukunda; Ann Tumushabe; Kassim Ssekabira
Widespread deforestation and increasingly intensive use of land to sustain a growing population has increased soil erosion, lowered soil fertility and reduced agricultural productivity in Uganda. This has raised concern over sustainability of farming systems in the Eastern Agro-ecological zone of Uganda. There is growing evidence that agroforestry can be a potential solution to these problems. However, enhancement of adoption of agroforestry as a viable alternative for farmers in diverse ecological and socio-economic conditions has remained low. The objective of this study was to identify the factors influencing the enhancement of adoption of agroforestry by smallholder farmers. Primary data on household, farm and technology characteristics was collected from 153 farming households. Results show that boundary planting, scattered tree planting, row planting and homestead gardening were the most commonly adopted agroforestry technologies in the study area. The Tobit model showed that sex, age, household size, education level, group membership, access to credit and extension visits had significantly positive effects on enhancing adoption of agroforestry. Mobilizing farmers to join groups, improving the quality and coverage of extension services, consideration of gender issues and intensifying agroforestry training among farmers with low levels of education were suggested as avenues to further enhance adoption of agroforestry in the Eastern agro-ecological zone of Uganda.
Linking Markets to Smallholder Agro-forestry Farmers As a Strategy for Poverty Alleviation in the Tropics
(Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2026-04-09) Twaha Ali Basamba; Barnabas Kiiza; Clement Mayanja; Bob Nakileza; Frank Matsiko; Paul Nyende; Elizabeth Bacwayo Kukunda
The objective of the study was to assess factors affecting market participation of agro-forestry smallholder farmers in Uganda. Primary data on household, farm and marketing characteristics were collected from 153 farming households using a semi-structured, pre-tested questionnaire. The determinants of market participation were assessed using the Probit model. Descriptive statistics showed that a combination of crop, livestock and tree products were marketed by farmers. The main products included maize, cassava and coffee (crops); firewood and poles (tree products); and birds and goats (livestock products). Results from the Probit model showed that farm size, household size, education level, access to credit and extension visits had positive and statistically significant effects on market participation of farmers in agro-forestry products’ markets. Age of farmer had a negative and statistically significant effect on the participation. Emphasis on improving the quality and coverage of extension services, extending credit facilities to farmers and intensifying agro-forestry training among farmers are suggested as avenues to enhance participation of farmers in agro-forestry products’ markets.
Assessing the Usability of Integrated Financial Management Information Systems (IFMS) in Uganda: Case Study of Mbale Local Government
(IST-Africa Institute and IIMC, 2024-05-07) Emmanuel Watuwa; Emmanuel Eilu
While numerous challenges are hindering the expected outcome of the Integrated Financial Management Systems (IFMS) in Uganda, one of the most notable challenges affecting IFMS is the usability challenge. Yet, little or no studies have so far examined the usability challenges of IFMS in Uganda. Hitherto, usability challenges can be a serious detriment to the successful implementation and continuous usage of IFMS. To assess the usability level of IFMS in Uganda, the Mbale Local government located in eastern Uganda was selected as a case study. The System Usability Scale SUS) was used to measure the usability of the IFMS used by the Mbale local government administration. Developed by John Brooke in 1986, the SUS is a simple, ten-item scale used to conduct usability assessments on a system. Open-ended questionnaires were also used as a follow-up tool. The average SUS score findings for the IFMS used in Mbale local government is 67.5 representing about 45 percent usability, which is poor. IFMS users recommended conducting IFMS training, regularly upgrading IFMS modules, providing appropriate user rights and access levels to local government staff, motivating IFMS users with incentives, providing adequate ICT support and assistance to local government staff, implementing robust network infrastructure and providing backup solutions, upgrading the existing infrastructure to be compatible with the IFMS, embracing user cantered design of the IFMS among others.
Mobile Digital Apps and News Production at NTV Uganda
(Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2023-03) Antonio Kisembo Elisha; Fred Kakooza
In the era of technological innovations, new media technologies continue to change the news production culture in media organizations. Specifically, mobile applications have created opportunities for fast delivery, packaging, and access to news on digital platforms. These have also provided ground for citizen journalism to thrive in the global south. Focusing on Uganda, this research investigates how mobile digital technologies have affected news production at NTV Uganda. The study examines how mobile apps that include NTV Go, Live U, and Octopus have affected the production of news at NTV Uganda. The study draws from the diffusion of innovations theoretical framework to interrogate the rate of adoption and use of mobile apps in the news production process to understand how technological innovations have been adopted and integrated at NTV Uganda. The study employed a case study design to assess the effect of new media technology on news production. The findings indicate that customized mobile apps at NTV Uganda have enhanced timely production and delivery of news. The findings further indicate that the public is also able to engage with the station to contribute and share their community stories through the NTV Go mobile apps. However, these changes have brought about unsettling problems of accuracy and credibility in the production of news at NTV Uganda. The study concludes that new media technologies have enabled quick and efficient production of news which is a major affordance of digital journalism.
Traditional Media and New Technologies: Facebook Radio Programming in Uganda
(Springer Nature, 2025-05) Fred Max Adii; Fred Kakooza
Digital technologies have transformed the media sector at the global level and influenced trends in Africa, particularly the broadcasting media sector in Uganda. The liberalisation of the broadcasting sector in Uganda and the rise in digital technologies, including mobile phones and the Internet, facilitates a convergence of the traditional radio medium and new media including social media. Traditional media including radio stations have adopted both digital and analogue broadcasting to remain accessible and relevant to their audience. To encourage this bond with their listeners, radio stations rely on traditional radio broadcasts, and many add-ons from other new media, including websites and Facebook live streams, as well as inviting listeners to call-in and answer quiz questions. Using the affordance perspective as the analytical framework, this chapter assesses how Facebook has been used in programming and how it has influenced programming. Through direct observation and in-depth interviews, this chapter explores the use of Facebook in radio programming in Uganda. The focus is on a commercial radio station––94.8XFM—where it was established that Facebook is critical to traditional radio programming in connecting with the audience, interact/engage with audience, identifying niche audiences, and interacting with the audience through multi-media content production. The audience now has a new user experience of producing and consuming radio content through a networked social media fan base; localised publishing of news and information on the radio station’s page. The Facebook platform is contributing to the station’s revenue base through advertising and promotion of products and services online.
Seasonal Dynamics and Optimal Control Analysis of Fowlpox Disease
(Springer Nature, 2025-02) Cosmas Muhumuza; Joseph Y. T. Mugisha; Fred Mayambala; John Kitayimbwa
Fowlpox is a highly contagious viral disease that primarily affects chickens and turkeys, though it can infect various bird species. The disease spreads rapidly through vectors, contaminated environments, and infected hosts, and is challenging to control due to seasonal variations influencing its dynamics. In this study, a deterministic model incorporating periodic mosquito growth and virus decay rates is formulated and analysed to assess the impact of seasonality in the disease dynamics. The model is further modified by incorporating time-dependent control parameters and analysed to evaluate the effect of insecticide spraying and environmental decontamination on the disease management. Optimal control theory is applied to determine the effectiveness of these interventions. The basic reproduction number, , is computed using the time-averaging method and the linear operator approach, and the results are analysed. The trajectories derived from the time-averaging method alternately overestimate and underestimate the disease risk as the amplitude of seasonal oscillations increases. In contrast, the linear operator approach consistently shows that regardless of the virus decay rate. Optimal results demonstrated that environmental decontamination is more effective than the insecticide spraying though relying on one strategy does not completely eliminate fowl pox disease in the chicken. However, combining both control measures yields significantly better outcomes.
Mathematical Modeling of the role of IL-23/Th17 in Asthma Pathogenesis
(Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 2025-12) Betty K Nabiyonga Kirenga; John M Kitayimbwa; Joseph Y T Mugisha
AsthmapathogenesisinvolvesactivitiesofotherThelper(Th)cells,suchasTh17cells, apart from the known Th1-Th2 cell interaction due to its severity. Pro-inflammatory cytokines, Interleukin (IL)-23/IL-1 mainly produced by macrophages, are considered essential for differentiating Th17 cells, which mediate neutrophilic inflammation (a major inflammatory characteristic of severe asthma, and resistant to available therapy). Variations in allergen exposure can induce distinct inflammatory phenotypes: an eosinophilic phenotype mediated by Th2 cells, a neutrophilic phenotype mediated by Th17 cells, or a mixed phenotype in severe asthma. We developed a mathematical model describing the regulation of Th2 cells, Th17 cells, and macrophages, incorporating IL-23/IL-1 cytokines under varying allergen exposure levels to predict potential therapeutic intervention conditions. The model exhibited two steady-state scenarios corresponding to the absence and presence of allergen, characterized by a transcritical forward bifurcation and mono-, bi-stability with hysteresis reflecting asthma severity, respectively. Bifurcation analysis predicted that the secretion rate of IL-23/IL-1 cytokines, together with the leaving rate of macrophages, are significant factors influencing neutrophilic inflammation. These findings suggest that modulating these parameters may offer effective therapeutic strategies to control asthma severity and shift the system further towards a healthier outcome.
Modelling Asthma Development in a Population With Genetic Risk and Polluted Environment
(Vilnius University Press, 2023-02) Betty K. Nabiyonga Kirenga; John M. Kitayimbwa; Joseph Y.T. Mugisha
Environmental pollutant continues to pose a great threat to public health, leading to development of chronic diseases. In this study, a nonlinear mathematical model is formulated and analysed to study the effect of genetic risk, environmental pollutant, public health education/awareness on asthma development. Conditions for the existence of the unique positive steady state and permanence of the system are assessed. Using Lyapunov function analysis, the unique positive steady state is locally and globally asymptotically stable. Results reveal that genetic risk, pollutant emission rate, effective exposure rate of population to polluted environment and recurrence rate contribute to asthma prevalence. However, sufficiently effective pollutant reduction strategies, improvement in compliance to public health education/awareness together with human dependent environmental pollutant depletion lead to a marked reduction in disease prevalence.
Phylogenomic Analysis Uncovers a 9-year Variation of Uganda Influenza Type-a Strains From the Who-recommended Vaccines and Other Africa Strains
(Springer Nature, 2023-04) Grace Nabakooza; D. Collins Owuor; Zaydah R. de Laurent; Ronald Galiwango; Nicholas Owor; John T. Kayiwa; Daudi Jjingo; Charles N. Agoti; D. James Nokes; David P. Kateete; John M. Kitayimbwa; Simon D. W. Frost; Julius J. Lutwama
Genetic characterisation of circulating influenza viruses directs annual vaccine strain selection and mitigation of infection spread. We used next-generation sequencing to locally generate whole genomes from 116 A(H1N1)pdm09 and 118 A(H3N2) positive patient swabs collected across Uganda between 2010 and 2018. We recovered sequences from 92% (215/234) of the swabs, 90% (193/215) of which were whole genomes. The newly-generated sequences were genetically and phylogenetically compared to the WHO-recommended vaccines and other Africa strains sampled since 1994. Uganda strain hemagglutinin (n = 206), neuraminidase (n = 207), and matrix protein (MP, n = 213) sequences had 95.23–99.65%, 95.31–99.79%, and 95.46–100% amino acid similarity to the 2010–2020 season vaccines, respectively, with several mutated hemagglutinin antigenic, receptor binding, and N-linked glycosylation sites. Uganda influenza type-A virus strains sequenced before 2016 clustered uniquely while later strains mixed with other Africa and global strains. We are the first to report novel A(H1N1)pdm09 subclades 6B.1A.3, 6B.1A.5(a,b), and 6B.1A.6 (± T120A) that circulated in Eastern, Western, and Southern Africa in 2017–2019. Africa forms part of the global influenza ecology with high viral genetic diversity, progressive antigenic drift, and local transmissions. For a continent with inadequate health resources and where social distancing is unsustainable, vaccination is the best option. Hence, African stakeholders should prioritise routine genome sequencing and analysis to direct vaccine selection and virus control.
Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Dynamics of Human Influenza Type-A Viruses in Africa: A Systematic Review
(MDPI, 2022-04) Grace Nabakooza; Ronald Galiwango; Simon D. W. Frost; David P. Kateete; John M. Kitayimbwa
Genomic characterization of circulating influenza type-A viruses (IAVs) directs the selection of appropriate vaccine formulations and early detection of potentially pandemic virus strains. However, longitudinal data on the genomic evolution and transmission of IAVs in Africa are scarce, limiting Africa’s benefits from potential influenza control strategies. We searched seven databases: African Journals Online, Embase, Global Health, Google Scholar, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science according to the PRISMA guidelines for studies that sequenced and/or genomically characterized Africa IAVs. Our review highlights the emergence and diversification of IAVs in Africa since 1993. Circulating strains continuously acquired new amino acid substitutions at the major antigenic and potential N-linked glycosylation sites in their hemagglutinin proteins, which dramatically affected vaccine protectiveness. Africa IAVs phylogenetically mixed with global strains forming strong temporal and geographical evolution structures. Phylogeographic analyses confirmed that viral migration into Africa from abroad, especially South Asia, Europe, and North America, and extensive local viral mixing sustained the genomic diversity, antigenic drift, and persistence of IAVs in Africa. However, the role of reassortment and zoonosis remains unknown. Interestingly, we observed substitutions and clades and persistent viral lineages unique to Africa. Therefore, Africa’s contribution to the global influenza ecology may be understated. Our results were geographically biased, with data from 63% (34/54) of African countries. Thus, there is a need to expand influenza surveillance across Africa and prioritize routine whole-genome sequencing and genomic analysis to detect new strains early for effective viral control.
Whole-genome Analysis to Determine the Rate and Patterns of Intra-subtype Reassortment Among Influenza Type-A Viruses in Africa
(Virus Evolution, 2022-01) Grace Nabakooza; Andrzej Pastusiak; David Patrick Kateete; Julius Julian Lutwama; John Mulindwa Kitayimbwa; Simon David William Frost
Influenza type-A viruses (IAVs) present a global burden of human respiratory infections and mortality. Genome reassortment is an important mechanism through which epidemiologically novel influenza viruses emerge and a core step in the safe reassortment-incompetent live-attenuated influenza vaccine development. Currently, there are no data on the rate, spatial and temporal distribution, and role of reassortment in the evolution and diversification of IAVs circulating in Africa. We aimed to detect intra-subtype reassortment among Africa pandemic H1N1pdm09 (2009-10), seasonal H1N1pdm09 (2011-20), and seasonal H3N2 viruses and characterize the genomic architecture and temporal and spatial distribution patterns of the resulting reassortants. Our study was nested within the Uganda National Influenza Surveillance Programme. Next-generation sequencing was used to generate whole genomes (WGs) from 234 H1N1pdm09 (n = 116) and H3N2 (n = 118) viruses sampled between 2010 and 2018 from seven districts in Uganda. We combined our newly generated WGs with 658 H1N1pdm09 and 1131 H3N2 WGs sampled between 1994 and 2020 across Africa and identified reassortants using an automated Graph Incompatibility Based Reassortment Finder software. Viral reassortment rates were estimated using a coalescent reassortant constant population model. Phylogenetic analysis was used to assess the effect of reassortment on viral genetic evolution. We observed a high frequency of intra-subtype reassortment events, 12 · 4 per cent (94/758) and 20 · 9 per cent (256/1,224), and reassortants, 13 · 3 per cent (101/758) and 38 · 6 per cent (472/1,224), among Africa H1N1pdm09 and H3N2 viruses, respectively. H1N1pdm09 reassorted at higher rates (0.1237-0.4255) than H3N2 viruses (0 · 00912-0.0355 events/lineage/year), a case unique to Uganda. Viral reassortants were sampled in 2009 through 2020, except in 2012. 78 · 2 per cent (79/101) of H1N1pdm09 reassortants acquired new non-structural, while 57 · 8 per cent (273/472) of the H3N2 reassortants had new hemagglutinin (H3) genes. Africa H3N2 viruses underwent more reassortment events involving larger reassortant sets than H1N1pdm09 viruses. Viruses with a specific reassortment architecture circulated for up to five consecutive years in specific countries and regions. The Eastern (Uganda and Kenya) and Western Africa harboured 84 · 2 per cent (85/101) and 55 · 9 per cent (264/472) of the continent's H1N1pdm09 and H3N2 reassortants, respectively. The frequent reassortment involving multi-genes observed among Africa IAVs showed the intracontinental viral evolution and diversification possibly sustained by viral importation from outside Africa and/or local viral genomic mixing and transmission. Novel reassortant viruses emerged every year, and some persisted in different countries and regions, thereby presenting a risk of influenza outbreaks in Africa. Our findings highlight Africa as part of the global influenza ecology and the advantage of implementing routine whole-over partial genome sequencing and analyses to monitor circulating and detect emerging viruses. Furthermore, this study provides evidence and heightens our knowledge on IAV evolution, which is integral in directing vaccine strain selection and the update of master donor viruses used in recombinant vaccine development.
Employing Phylogenetic Tree Shape Statistics to Resolve the Underlying Host Population Structure
(BMC Bioinformatics, 2021-11) Hassan W Kayondo; Alfred Ssekagiri; Grace Nabakooza; Nicholas Bbosa; Deogratius Ssemwanga; Pontiano Kaleebu; Samuel Mwalili; John M Mango; Andrew J Leigh Brown; Roberto A Saenz; Ronald Galiwango; John M Kitayimbwa
Background: Host population structure is a key determinant of pathogen and infectious disease transmission patterns. Pathogen phylogenetic trees are useful tools to reveal the population structure underlying an epidemic. Determining whether a population is structured or not is useful in informing the type of phylogenetic methods to be used in a given study. We employ tree statistics derived from phylogenetic trees and machine learning classification techniques to reveal an underlying population structure. Results: In this paper, we simulate phylogenetic trees from both structured and non-structured host populations. We compute eight statistics for the simulated trees, which are: the number of cherries; Sackin, Colless and total cophenetic indices; ladder length; maximum depth; maximum width, and width-to-depth ratio. Based on the estimated tree statistics, we classify the simulated trees as from either a non-structured or a structured population using the decision tree (DT), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM). We incorporate the basic reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) in our tree simulation procedure. Sensitivity analysis is done to investigate whether the classifiers are robust to different choice of model parameters and to size of trees. Cross-validated results for area under the curve (AUC) for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves yield mean values of over 0.9 for most of the classification models. Conclusions: Our classification procedure distinguishes well between trees from structured and non-structured populations using the classifiers, the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cucconi and Podgor-Gastwirth tests and the box plots. SVM models were more robust to changes in model parameters and tree size compared to KNN and DT classifiers. Our classification procedure was applied to real -world data and the structured population was revealed with high accuracy of [Formula: see text] using SVM-polynomial classifier.
Phylogenetic Networks and Parameters Inferred from HIV Nucleotide Sequences of High-Risk and General Population Groups in Uganda: Implications for Epidemic Control
(MDPI, 2021-05) Nicholas Bbosa; Deogratius Ssemwanga; Rebecca N Nsubuga; Noah Kiwanuka; Bernard S Bagaya; John M Kitayimbwa; Alfred Ssekagiri; Gonzalo Yebra; Pontiano Kaleebu; Andrew Leigh-Brown
Phylogenetic inference is useful in characterising HIV transmission networks and assessing where prevention is likely to have the greatest impact. However, estimating parameters that influence the network structure is still scarce, but important in evaluating determinants of HIV spread. We analyzed 2017 HIV pol sequences (728 Lake Victoria fisherfolk communities (FFCs), 592 female sex workers (FSWs) and 697 general population (GP)) to identify transmission networks on Maximum Likelihood (ML) phylogenetic trees and refined them using time-resolved phylogenies. Network generative models were fitted to the observed degree distributions and network parameters, and corrected Akaike Information Criteria and Bayesian Information Criteria values were estimated. 347 (17.2%) HIV sequences were linked on ML trees (maximum genetic distance ≤4.5%, ≥95% bootstrap support) and, of these, 303 (86.7%) that consisted of pure A1 (n = 168) and D (n = 135) subtypes were analyzed in BEAST v1.8.4. The majority of networks (at least 40%) were found at a time depth of ≤5 years. The waring and yule models fitted best networks of FFCs and FSWs respectively while the negative binomial model fitted best networks in the GP. The network structure in the HIV-hyperendemic FFCs is likely to be scale-free and shaped by preferential attachment, in contrast to the GP. The findings support the targeting of interventions for FFCs in a timely manner for effective epidemic control. Interventions ought to be tailored according to the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in the target population and understanding the network structure is critical in ensuring the success of HIV prevention programs.
Educational Resource Dynamics and Instructional Adaptability as Determinants of Competency-Based Curriculum Implementation Fidelity in Uganda’s Lower Secondary Education
(East African Journal of Education Studies, 2026) Tonny Muzaale; John Kitayimbwa; Wilson Eduan
This study investigated Instructional Resource Dynamics and Instructional Adaptability as Determinants of Competency-Based Curriculum Implementation Fidelity in Uganda’s Lower Secondary Education. The specific objective was to determine how human, digital/printed, and physical infrastructural resources affect curriculum implementation and to assess the mediating role of instructional adaptability. An explanatory sequential mixed methods design was employed, beginning with a quantitative phase using structured surveys administered to 972 lower secondary school teachers, followed by qualitative interviews to contextualise statistical findings. Quantitative data were analysed using SPSS Version 25, employing descriptive statistics, correlation, hierarchical multiple regression, and mediation analysis through path coefficients and Sobel testing. Results indicated that educational resources significantly predicted curriculum implementation, with human resources having the strongest effect, followed by digital/printed materials, while physical infrastructure showed a smaller, non-significant contribution. Instructional adaptability partially mediated the relationship between educational resources and curriculum implementation, suggesting that resource availability enhances teachers’ adaptive teaching capacities, which in turn improves curriculum fidelity. These findings align with Constructivist and Fidelity of Implementation theories, emphasising that teacher competence and flexibility bridge the gap between policy intentions and classroom realities. The study concludes that the success of CBC implementation depends not only on the adequacy of resources but also on teachers’ ability to adapt instruction to diverse contexts. It recommends that the Ministry of Education increase teacher recruitment and professional development, expand equitable access to digital and printed learning resources, and improve infrastructure standards through collaboration with county governments and school boards. Strengthening teacher adaptability through continuous professional learning and targeted policy support is essential for sustaining effective, learner-centred curriculum implementation across Uganda’s education system.
Applying Resource Dependence Theory to Examine Curriculum Implementation Fidelity in Uganda’s Lower Secondary Schools
(East African Journal of Education Studies, 2026) Tonny Muzaale; John Kitayimbwa; Wilson Eduan
This study investigated how instructional efficacy mediates the relationship between resource capacity and competency-based curriculum (CBC) implementation fidelity in Uganda’s lower secondary schools. Firmly grounded in the RTD framework, which theorises that educational resource capacity exerts its influence on curriculum outcomes through proximal teacher-level response mechanisms, particularly instructional efficacy, and guided by systems and instructional effectiveness perspectives, the study examined the extent to which school resources enhance teacher instructional efficacy, which in turn influences faithful implementation of learner-centred CBC practices. An explanatory sequential mixed-methods design was employed, collecting quantitative data from 972 teachers, administrators, and NCDC staff, alongside qualitative data from 11 (eleven) in-depth interviews. Quantitative analysis utilised hierarchical multiple regression with bootstrapped mediation to estimate indirect effects, a regression-based approach sometimes referred to as PROCESS-style mediation analysis. Results revealed that resource capacity significantly predicts instructional efficacy, which partially mediates the effect of resources on CBC implementation fidelity. Teachers with higher instructional efficacy reported stronger engagement with students, greater adaptability, and more consistent adherence to curriculum objectives. While resources directly support curriculum implementation, their impact is substantially amplified when teachers perceive themselves as capable and confident in their instructional practices. Qualitative findings further contextualised these results, highlighting the importance of supportive leadership, collaborative school environments, and structured professional development in translating resources into effective teaching practices. The study concludes that enhancing CBC implementation requires coordinated investment in resources and teacher capacity development, coupled with strengthened school-level leadership. It recommends institutionalised professional development programs, strategic allocation of school resources, and ongoing monitoring and support to sustain high levels of instructional efficacy and curriculum fidelity across Uganda’s lower secondary schools.
School Change, Education Receptivity, and Resource Capacity as Predictors of Curriculum Implementation Fidelity
(African Journal of Empirical Research, 2026-01) Tonny Muzaale; John Kitayimbwa; Wilson Eduan
This study was conducted with the aim of examining the role of school change receptivity and resource capacity as predictors of CBC implementation fidelity in lower secondary schools in Uganda. Using a system and change management perspective, the study sought to examine the role of change receptivity and resource capacity in predicting CBC implementation fidelity in lower secondary schools in Uganda. The researcher has used the resource-based theory and fidelity of implementation theory as a basis for the review. An explanatory sequential mixed-methods design was used to examine the relationship between change receptivity and CBC implementation fidelity and how resource capacity influences CBC implementation fidelity with a sample of 972 participants from the National Curriculum Development Centre, comprising teachers, school administrators, and other staff from public and private schools in Wakiso District, Uganda, and 71 participants from in-depth interviews with teachers and school administrators from selected schools. Quantitative data analysis was conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics Version 25, and qualitative data analysis was conducted using Braun and Clarke’s framework for thematic analysis to explain and contextualize the findings from the quantitative data analysis. The results revealed that school change receptivity and resource capacity co-acted to predict CBC implementation fidelity. Human resource capacity was a dominant predictor of fidelity in that schools with trained, supported, and confident teachers recorded high levels of instruction consistency and student-centeredness. However, the lack of refresher courses and professional support hindered change receptivity. Physical resource capacity was a moderate predictor in those schools with equipped and functioning physical facilities, which recorded high levels of fidelity despite the lack of physical resources in some schools. Instructional digital and print materials recordeda low but positive effect on fidelity in that they were hindered by the lack of ICT facilities and digital materials. In conclusion, this study argues that in order to enhance CBC fidelity of implementation, there is a need to enhance schools’ change receptivity and resource capacity. It is recommended that schools be provided with professional development opportunities to enhance change receptivity and resource capacity in order to enhance fidelity in CBC implementation.

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