Patterns and determinants of youth employment in Uganda, 2013–2023: statistical evidence and policy implications for African business

Abstract

This study examines the patterns and determinants of youth employment in Uganda from 2013 to 2023, using nationally representative data from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) and macroeconomic indicators from the World Bank, African Development Bank (AfDB), and the Bank of Uganda (BoU). The findings indicate that although youth labor force participation remains high, averaging above 70%, structural transformation in the labor market has been limited. Over 60% of youth remain engaged in low-productivity agriculture, with only marginal shifts toward industry and services. Employment absorption in the industrial and service sectors increased by less than 10% over the decade, constrained by skills mismatches, widespread informality, and limited private-sector growth. Gender disparities persist, with female youth less likely to access wage employment and experiencing wage gaps of 15–20%. Spatial inequalities are also evident, as urban youth are nearly three times more likely to secure formal employment than rural youth. Using logistic regression, multinomial regression, and Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition, the study identifies education, household wealth, urban residence, and gender as key determinants of employment outcomes. The results suggest that policy interventions, such as the Youth Livelihood Program, have had limited structural impact due to weak alignment with private-sector demand. The study highlights the need for inclusive industrialization, strengthened vocational training, gender-responsive labor policies, and enhanced public–private partnerships to improve youth employment outcomes and support sustainable economic transformation.