Masters of Science in Agriculture and Rural development

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11951/1038

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Browsing Masters of Science in Agriculture and Rural development by Subject "Temporal"

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    Spatio-Temporal Trends and Risk Factors Associated with Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) Disease Outbreaks in Rumbek North County, Lakes State, South Sudan.
    (Uganda Christian University, 2025-06) Makuac Chol Agor
    Rumbek North County, South Sudan pastoral communities continue to face a significant threat from Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) at prevalence of 70%. The disease has caused exceedingly high economic losses (60%) and compromised the food security situation of the pastoral communities. This study aimed to understand the spatio-temporal patterns and risk factors associated with CBPP disease outbreaks in the county between 2019 and 2022. In this retrospective study, archived data by Lakes State Ministry of Animal Resources and Fisheries between 2019 and 2022 was reviewed. To understand the risk factors associated with CBPP disease occurrence, a survey using questionnaires was conducted to collect primary data. 274 cattle farmers whose farms registered confirmed cases of CBPP incidence during the study period were purposively selected and interviewed. A combined descriptive and inferential analysis were used to depict the spatio-temporal distribution of the CBPP disease outbreaks in study. The findings revealed that majority (74.1%) of the farmers were male. The respondents age average was 34 years and universally (100%) illiterate. The results also showed variation in incidence rate of CBPP disease in villages of payams; highest at 25.17% (n=436) in Makuac and least at 0.29% (n=5) in Anguth. Further, findings showed variation in number of CBPP outbreaks spread over the months in years with increased cases in October at 15.53% (n=269) and July 15.76% (n=273), and lowest cases in February at (2.19%). While seasonality of number of outbreaks revealed a highest (72.5%) number of CBPP outbreaks during the wet season. The significant (P<0.05) risk factors for occurrence of CBPP disease outbreaks were geographical area with odds ratio (OR)= =2.874), overcrowding of cattle at water points (OR=1.049), mixing of new animals with old one (OR=1.053) and flooding (OR=1.243). This study has confirmed the empirical evidence of persistent occurrence of CBPP disease outbreaks in Rumbek North County, characterized by spatial and temporal trends. The study recommends an extensive sensitization and education program for the pastoral community on epidemiology of disease and the best management practices, strategic vaccination in the affected payams and before the wet season's arrival, construct more water points to reduce on frequent migrations and overcrowding during watering of cattle.